Friday, November 11, 2016

My Friend of 35 Years Sent Me This on the Stock Market

Wow - a President Trump with a working majority (so it would seem) in the House and Senate. Think of the roads and bridges he can build. But is all the protesting in big Cities a foretaste? Hope not. And health care! Drug companies less regulated. Time Warner less regulated. More military and more guns. So many changes. The market has usually done well for new Republican Presidents once they are actually in office. Harding couldn't escape the Wilson Bear market of 1920 until the middle of 1921. IKE needed to end the Korean War and declare for new interstate highway system to get market moving in mid-1953. Nixon became President with US already embroiled in war in VietNam and after there had already been a wild speculative market in low priced stocks. Small wonder the market fell apart in the second half of 1969. Rates were also on the rise then, too. No bottom until May 1970. Reagan fared little better. A bear market started after May 1982 and lasted until August 1983 when Volcker finally decided to let rates fall. And then there's George Bush Jr. The Clinton Years were so good for stocks and a vicious bear market started almost as soon he was inaugurated. It did not end until March 2003. So next year may not be good. And, of course, the Russians will be recalling the fact that it will be the 100th anniversary of the two Russian revolutions of 1917. So, Trump may find it harder to get along with Russia than he thinks. But it's certainly worth a try. We have a common enemy, Isis. I admit to looking forward to President Trump very much. He could do so much to help middle-America instead of always taking Wall Street's suggestions. 1954-1955 under IKE and 1982-1984, 1985-1987 were magnificent under Reagan for the stock market. It pays to be an optimist. But we'll see how CNN treats him. How thick his skin is. Etc... Happy Veterans Day!

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