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Sunday, June 26, 2016
Stock Market Key Metrics, 3-Stock Picks "BUYS" of the Week, Trading DIA Monday, Bearish Stocks to "SELL Now", SPDR 12 SELECT SECTORS ETFs, Calendar of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings
[Next Day's Advance Market Decisions]
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Douglas Gale
12:39 PM (3 minutes ago)
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Information provided by: www.MktMetrics.com Premium
Friday June 24, 2016 DJIA Closed: 17400.75 -610.32 vs. 17675.16 -57.95 Prior week, -2.27% BELOW its FALLING 21-day moving average of 17805.77 vs. 17765.75 Prior week. (Overbought: Above 21-DMA +4.61 reached on 10-23-15) vs. (Oversold: Below 21-DMA -6.21% reached on 1-15-16 (Historic High: 10.56% on 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low: -26.03% on 5-7-10). Upper 3.5% band: 18429U vs. Lower 3.5% band: 17182.60U
DJIA Linear Regression: Rose 0.13U vs. -0.01N Prior Week (Historic High: +2.16 8-14-13 / Historic Low: -.82 02-12-16)(DJIA Least Squares Regression Channel Top: New High 18,688U and Channel Bottom: Rose 16,090U.) Historic High 18,688.75 6-24-16, bottomed 3-24-16 Low 15,542.
DIA Trend: 8-day M/A 177.19D vs. 21-day M/A 177.96U Spread: -0.77D vs. +0.32D Prior Week ("M/A Trend Crossover SELL Signal" occurred on 7-24-16.) (Historic High Spread: +5.30 11-7-14 / Historic Low Spread: -7.14 8-15-11). (*A Favorite Indicator as the Spread acts as an early warning signal of a shift in portfolio positions by smart money moving in, or out, of the DIA.)
DIA Price Volatility: Increased Friday 7.70 Up from -0.32 Thursday.
(Historic High: 35.10 8-25-15, Low: -10.76% 8-31-15)
DIA Proposed Range: Monday 1.22 vs. 3.38 Actual Range Friday.
(Historic High: 4.31 3-31-09 & 4.09 12-18-14 / Historic Low: 0.63% 5-19-14)
DIA Price Momentum: Fell 71%D vs. 84%N Prior week (Historic High: 100% 2-22-12, 97% 4-22-16 / Historic Low: 3% on 9-4-15, 3% 8-21-15, 3% 8-19-11, 3% 6-30-09, and 3% on 10-22-08)
DIA MACD: MACD Crossover "SELL" Signal on 6-14-16. Sell remains in effect.
DIA 5-Day Stochastic%D: Rose 48U vs. 39D Prior week (Historic High: 100 / Historic Low: 0)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Fell 34%D vs. 39%D Prior week
(High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =+75) / (Oversold =-25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Fell -183D vs. -102D Prior week (Overbought: =>+200 / Oversold: =<-200>) (Historic High: 309.49 12-12-14, 306 11-4-10 / Historic Low: -318 5-6-10, -312 8-21-15.)
McClellan Oscillator: Rose -65.85U vs. -85.92D Prior week (an overbought / oversold indicator.) (Historic High: 386.03 1-6-09 & 332.00 3-3-16 / Historic Low: -438.08 8-8-11)
Summation Index: Fell 3383.19D vs. 3417.39D Prior week ("Bull Market Breakout" +2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" -2500.00)(Historic High: 5599.98 9-22-09 / Historic Low: -4699.43 11-20-08)
NYSE Composite Cumulative Unadjusted Up-Vol. minus Down-Vol: "MAJOR SELL" Signal occurred Friday, 6-24-16 DJIA at 17,838.56, "Resistance" at DJIA 18,083 met on 4-20-16. ROC 23.72% vs. 22.34% Prior Week, Annual ROC -3.59% vs. 0.91% Prior Week.
(Overbought: +23 / Oversold: -23) (Annual ROC Historic High: +26.60 5-17-13 / Historic Low: -23.24% 1-27-12)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Fell -.05D vs. .08N Prior Week (Historic High: +44 11-20-14 / Historic Low: -46 12-19-11) Mean= -2
DIA Outlook: Fell 69%D vs. 74%D Prior Week (*A Favorite Indicator as it tracks Institutional Sentiment.) (Historic High: 96% 7-28-09 / Historic Low: 2% 3-11-09)
DIA Probability of Being "UP" Monday, 6-27-16: 100% vs. 61% Last Monday
(a reading of 52+ is positive, a reading of 48- is negative) (Historic High: 100 / Historic Low: 0)
Dow 30 + DIA: 19 Buy vs. 12 Sell, Fell 61%D vs. 71%D Prior Week. (A reading of 52+ is Positive, a reading of 48- is Negative.) (*A Favorite Indicator as its direction most often predicts near term market action.) (an 87%+ reading is Overbought 97% was reached 4-1-16); (a 13% reading is Oversold, reached on 12-3-15 & 6-15-15, 10% on 8-26-15, 6% on 9-11-15.) (Historic High: 100 / Historic Low: 0)
DIA Directional Indicator: Fell -28D vs. 18D Prior Week (Historic High: 133 10-28-15 / Historic Low: -117 8-26-15)
SPY Directional Indicator: Fell -33D vs. 29D Prior Week (Historic High: 149 10-28-15 / Historic Low: -127 8-26-15)
QQQ Directional Indicator: Fell -25D vs. 24D Prior Week (Historic High: 121 10-28-15 / Historic Low: -71 1-8-16)
IWB Directional Indicator: Fell -15D vs. 30U Prior Week (Historic High: 94 11-14-14 / Historic Low: -87 8-28-15)
IWM Directional Indicator: Fell 3D vs. 42D Prior Week (Historic High: 91 11-14-14 / Historic Low: -87 8-28-15)
IWM/IWB Computation: (IWM Close 112.55 vs. IWB Close 113.47) Spread: +0.99D vs. +1.01D Prior Week (Small Cap Relative Strength Ratio is calculated taking the daily closing value of the Russell 2000 Index, and dividing it by the Russell 1000. If the line moves upward, then the Russell 2000 is outperforming on a relative basis.
That can mean going up faster, or going down more slowly. If the line is moving downward, then the small cap universe is generally doing worse than the large caps, on a relative basis. (*A Favorite Indicator as the Spread points to a shift in portfolio positions by risk capital investors moving in, or out, of Small Cap stocks.)
Market Comment: The second-quarter earnings season hits full force in mid-July. Improved earnings reports from U.S. companies could be good news for stocks, as they would make higher share prices justifiable on a price-earnings basis.
S&P 500 companies on average are expected to report a 3.9 percent decline in second-quarter earnings from the same quarter a year ago and a 2.3 percent increase in September-quarter earnings, according to Thomson Reuters data. However, estimates for multinationals could be cut due to the Brexit vote.
DIA 06/27/16 Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 174.37
Today's Predicted High: 174.37
Today's Predicted Low: 173.15
Today's Proposed Range: 1.22
Buy/Sell Rating: Buy
Binary Ladder Pricing
174.98 Upside Potential R2
174.98 Upside Potential R1
174.60 High Level R2
174.37 Low Level R1
174.37 Pivot Point
173.76 High Level S1
173.15 Low Level S2
172.54 Downside Potential S1
171.06 Downside Potential S2
SPDR 12 SELECT SECTORS ETFs
WEEKLY COMPARISONS
Week ending June 24, 2016
86% XLU (Utilities)
74% XTL (Telecommunications)
63% XLB (Materials)
60% XLE (Energy)
58% XLV (Healthcare)
57% XRT (Retail)
54% XLF (Financials)
52% XLI (Industrials)
50% XLK (Information Technology)
45% GXC (China)
43% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
33% XBI (Biotech)
AVERAGE: 56% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
Week ending June 17, 2016
87% XLU (Utilities)
83% XTL (Telecommunications)
80% XLB (Materials)
65% XLE (Energy)
64% XLI (Industrials)
63% XLV (Healthcare)
62% XLK (Information Technology)
60% XRT (Retail)
58% XLF (Financials)
52% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
46% GXC (China)
45% XBI (Biotech)
AVERAGE: 64% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
Week ending June 10, 2016
88% XLU (Utilities)
87% XTL (Telecommunications)
82% XLB (Materials)
81% XLF (Financials)
75% XLV (Healthcare)
73% XBI (Biotech)
73% XLK (Information Technology)
71% XLE (Energy)
69% XLI (Industrials)
65% XRT (Retail)
55% GXC (China)
52% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
AVERAGE: 73% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
Week ending June 3, 2016
91% XTL (Telecommunications)
87% XLU (Utilities)
87% XBI (Biotech)
86% XLF (Financials)
84% XLV (Healthcare)
80% XLK (Information Technology)
74% XLI (Industrials)
73% XLB (Materials)
69% XLE (Energy)
61% GXC (China)
59% XRT (Retail)
51% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
AVERAGE: 75% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
Selected Stocks this Week to SELL/Go-SHORT (6-27-16 to 7-1-16 "BEARISH":
AGG, AIQ, AMCX, ATHM, BAB, BND, BZQ, CHDN, CMCM, CMTL, CSIQ, DAL, DRV, ENT, EUM, FRGI, HMC, IRL, JBLU, LUX, PPLT, PRTK, PTSI, QQQX, QURE, RXDX, SHPG, SIG, SPWR, SRS, TACO, TI. (32, 6-24; vs. 39, 6-17; vs. 43, 6-10; vs. 31, 6-3) Conclusion: Selling remains subdued, even after the Brexit sell-off to the Lower Band of the trading range. This is no time to be complacent because the selling may need time to base.
3-Stock Picks of the Week "BULLISH BUY Go-Long" (6-27-16 to 7-1-16): "AWK, CWT and YORW"
#1-Stock Pick "BUY" of the Week
American Water Works Company, Inc., Earnings Reporting: 3-August-2016.
American Water Works Company, Inc. (06/24/16 Close 79.93) American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States and Canada. The company offers water and wastewater services to approximately 1,600 communities in 16 states. It operates approximately 81 surface water treatment plants with approximately 500 groundwater treatment plants and 1,000 groundwater wells; 100 wastewater treatment facilities, 1,200 treated water storage facilities, 1,400 pumping stations, 81 dams, and 49,000 miles of mains and collection pipes. The company also undertakes contracts to design, build, operate, and maintain water and wastewater facilities for military bases, municipalities, the food and beverage industry, and other customers. In addition, it provides warranty-type services to homeowners and smaller commercial customers to protect against the cost of repairing broken or leaking water pipes or clogged or blocked sewer pipes, as well as interior electric line repairs; and water sourcing, transfer services, pipeline construction, water and equipment hauling, and water storage solutions for natural gas exploration and production companies. The company serves residential customers; commercial customers, such as offices, retail stores, and restaurants; industrial customers, including manufacturing and production operations; public authorities, which comprise government buildings and other public sector facilities; and other water utilities, as well as supplies water to public fire hydrants for firefighting purposes, and private fire customers for use in fire suppression systems in office buildings and other facilities, as well as to other water utilities. American Water Works Company, Inc. serves approximately 15 million people with drinking water, wastewater, and other water-related services in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and Ontario, Canada. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Voorhees, New Jersey.
AWK 06/27/16 Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 79.27
Today's Predicted High: 80.60
Today's Predicted Low: 79.27
Today's Proposed Range: 1.33
Buy/Sell Rating: Strong Buy
Binary Ladder Pricing
81.26 Upside Potential R2
80.60 Upside Potential R1
80.03 High Level R2
79.94 Low Level R1
79.27 Pivot Point
79.27 High Level S1
78.61 Low Level S2
78.60 Downside Potential S1
76.13 Downside Potential S2
#2-Stock Pick "BUY" of the Week ("CWT")
California Water Service Group, Earnings Reporting: 27-July-2016.
California Water Service Group (06/24/16 Close 33.45) California Water Service Group, through its subsidiaries, provides water utility and other related services in California, Washington, New Mexico, and Hawaii. The company engages in the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution, and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public, and irrigation uses, as well as for fire protection. It provides its services to approximately 480,300 customers in 83 California communities; 4,300 water and wastewater customers on the islands of Maui and Hawaii; 16,500 customers in the Tacoma and Olympia areas in Washington; and 7,900 water and wastewater customers in the Belen, Los Lunas, and Elephant Butte areas in New Mexico. The company is also involved in the non-regulated water-related services, including operating water and waste water systems; providing operating and maintenance, meter reading, and billing services to private companies and municipalities; leasing communication antenna sites on its properties to telecommunication companies; billing of third-party insurance programs to its residential customers; operating recycled water systems; providing lab services; and selling surplus property. California Water Service Group was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
CWT 06/27/16 Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 33.21
Today's Predicted High: 33.70
Today's Predicted Low: 33.21
Today's Proposed Range: 0.49
Buy/Sell Rating: Strong Buy
Binary Ladder Pricing
33.94 Upside Potential R2
33.70 Upside Potential R1
33.55 High Level R2
33.46 Low Level R1
33.21 Pivot Point
33.21 High Level S1
32.97 Low Level S2
32.96 Downside Potential S1
30.99 Downside Potential S2
#3-Stock Pick "BUY" of the Week ("YORW")
The York Water Company, Earnings Reporting: 4-August-2016.
The York Water Company (06/24/16 Close 30.72) The York Water Company impounds, purifies, and distributes drinking water. It owns and operates two wastewater collection and treatment systems; and has two reservoirs comprising Lake Williams and Lake Redman, which together hold up to approximately 2.2 billion gallons of water. The company also has a 15-mile pipeline from the Susquehanna River to Lake Redman; and owns five wells providing that supply water to its customers in Carroll Valley Borough and Cumberland Township, Adams County. It serves customers in 39 municipalities within York County and 9 municipalities within Adams County, Pennsylvania. The company serves various customers in fixtures and furniture, electrical machinery, food products, paper, ordnance units, textile products, injectable drug delivery systems, air conditioning systems, laundry detergent, barbells, and motorcycles industries. The York Water Company was founded in 1816 and is based in York, Pennsylvania.
YORW 06/27/16 Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 30.34
Today's Predicted High: 31.10
Today's Predicted Low: 30.34
Today's Proposed Range: 0.76
Buy/Sell Rating: Strong Buy
Binary Ladder Pricing
31.48 Upside Potential R2
31.10 Upside Potential R1
30.82 High Level R2
30.72 Low Level R1
30.34 Pivot Point
30.34 High Level S1
29.96 Low Level S2
29.96 Downside Potential S1
28.42 Downside Potential S2
Most Recent "Bullish" Stock Picks:
CNS, Inc. (06/17/16 Close 39.68); SCG (06/17/16 Close 71.42); AGX (06/10/16 Close 42.96); STR (06/10/16 Close 25.04); MKSI (06/3/16 Close 41.57); EXLS (06/3/16 Close 52.28); KELYA (05/27/16 Close 19.80); GEL (05/20/16 Close 38.22); HSKA (05/13/16 Close: 39.56); JEC (05/06/16 Close: 48.65); E (04/29/16 Close: 32.77); MKTX (04/22/16 Close: 129.46); HTS (04/15/16 Close: 15.94); SUI (04/08/16 Close: 71.51); PZE (04/01/16 Close: 6.57); EXA (03/24/16 Close: 13.49); JHX (03/11/16 Close: 13.82); ALE (03/04/16 Close: 54.91); CNSL (02/26/16 Close: 22.98); HSIC (02/19/16 Close: 166.24); EDE (02/12/16 Close: 32.99); AEM (02/05/16 Close: 33.51); LG (01/29/16 Close: 63.94); PRFT (01/22/16 Close: 18.78); XEL (01/15/16 Close: 36.50); MGEE (01/08/16 Close: 45.72).
Calendar of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings: Following the seemingly endless "Brexit" hype, focus will finally shift back to the home front. Highlighting the economic calendar are the final first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, plus several speeches from Fed officials. Garnering the most attention will be Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who will speak in Portugal on Wednesday at a European Central Bank (ECB) conference. Meanwhile, it will be a relatively slow week for earnings, but major companies set to report results include Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON), and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU).
Monday, June 27
The international trade balance is due out on Monday, as well as the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. The earnings front is relatively quiet.
Tuesday, June 28
Final first-quarter GDP data will be released on Tuesday, along with the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. NKE, Carnival Corp (CCL), and IHS Inc. (IHS) will step up to the earnings stage.
Wednesday, June 29
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at an ECB conference in Portugal on Wednesday. Also, personal income and spending data will be released, as well as the pending home sales index and the regularly scheduled crude inventories update. Among the companies set to release earnings are Acuity Brands (AYI), General Mills (GIS), MON, and Pier 1 Imports (PIR).
Thursday, June 30
The Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI) and weekly jobless claims are due on Thursday. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak, as well. ConAgra (CAG), Constellation Brands (STZ), Darden Restaurants (DRI), McCormick & Company (MKC), MU, Schnitzer Steel (SCHN), Paychex (PAYX), and Progress Software (PRGS) will all take their turns in the earnings confessional.
Friday, July 1
On Friday, Markit's manufacturing PMI, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index, and construction spending will hit the Street, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak in London. There are no notable earnings reports scheduled.
Good luck and good trading!
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The information and data contained in this site was obtained from independent research and development believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, or to provide investment advice. Stocks and stock options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a solicitation of an offer to buy shares in any fund whose performance is provided in this site. Such an offer can be solicited only by a fund directly or its agent.
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