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Thursday, August 11, 2016
Roger in NC wrote this to me about the current state of the Stock Market
Roger was for many years a stalwart with E.F. Hutton & Company.
MARKET COMMENTS:
1)Will reversal patterns ever work??? There are only 3 classic reversal
patterns. They are a parabolic, a head and shoulders, and a broadening
top(megaphone pattern). In the last 16 years the major market averages have
done a giant broadening top. From early 2015 they have done another broadening
top. Now on the daily chart they have done another since early May.
Furthermore, they have done even a tiny one in the last month.
IMPLICATION----SOMEDAY, IF GOVT MANIPULATION FAILS, THEN THE POTENTIAL BEAR
MARKET WOULD BE HORRENDOUS.
2)How overpriced is the market. IF you use bollinger bands, then you know that
the upper and lower bands are 2 standard deviations from the dotted line of
price volatility. weekly also. but, utilities are now 3 deviations above the
10 year average. As a working broker I signaled to my trading accounts that
the govt bond market was at a bottom in 1980-81. That's when the govt yields
were 15 percent. Who could have forecasted that govt yields would go to the
lowest levels in us history and worldwide to the lowest yields in 5,000 years.
Who would have believed a 36 year bull trend???? Everyone knows that some day
that trend will reverse, but WHEN??? So far, we cannot see a good trend
reversal pattern.
3)gold/silver/miners. from here---up or down??? Arguments can be made for
both. My opinion, raise some cash. WHY??? IF you sell and have some cash, then
you can always buy back at some price.
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