Thursday, August 11, 2016

Roger in NC wrote this to me about the current state of the Stock Market

Roger was for many years a stalwart with E.F. Hutton & Company. MARKET COMMENTS: 1)Will reversal patterns ever work??? There are only 3 classic reversal patterns. They are a parabolic, a head and shoulders, and a broadening top(megaphone pattern). In the last 16 years the major market averages have done a giant broadening top. From early 2015 they have done another broadening top. Now on the daily chart they have done another since early May. Furthermore, they have done even a tiny one in the last month. IMPLICATION----SOMEDAY, IF GOVT MANIPULATION FAILS, THEN THE POTENTIAL BEAR MARKET WOULD BE HORRENDOUS. 2)How overpriced is the market. IF you use bollinger bands, then you know that the upper and lower bands are 2 standard deviations from the dotted line of price volatility. weekly also. but, utilities are now 3 deviations above the 10 year average. As a working broker I signaled to my trading accounts that the govt bond market was at a bottom in 1980-81. That's when the govt yields were 15 percent. Who could have forecasted that govt yields would go to the lowest levels in us history and worldwide to the lowest yields in 5,000 years. Who would have believed a 36 year bull trend???? Everyone knows that some day that trend will reverse, but WHEN??? So far, we cannot see a good trend reversal pattern. 3)gold/silver/miners. from here---up or down??? Arguments can be made for both. My opinion, raise some cash. WHY??? IF you sell and have some cash, then you can always buy back at some price.

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